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‘Modinomics’ has ‘Decoupled’ India’s robust Economy by myopic vision & the double whammy of ‘DeMo-Disaster’ & ‘Ill-conceived GST’!

30 January, 2018
In a press Statement Issued 0n January 29,  Shri Randeep Singh Surjewala, In-Charge, Communications, AICC said that ‘Economic Survey’ establishes that Modi Govt has become synonymous with ‘Distorting Macroeconomic Indices’ & ‘Slowing Down Economic Progress’ According to Shri Randeep Singh Surjewala,the  Economic Survey 2017-18 has affirmed the utter mismanagement of India’s Economy by Modi Government in last 4 years. No amount of new announcements in the Presidential  Address and the forthcoming budget can undo the damage the BJP Government has done to a robust economy like India. GDP Growth is down, Agriculture is in utter disarray, Rural Wages are declining,  Industrial Growth is plunging, Job creation figures are invisible, Fresh Investment is low,  Education and Health spending is in crises, ‘Make in India’ is floundering, Price Rise is raising its ugly head and due to Demonetisation & Flawed GST, the informal sector which by the Economic Survey’s own admission has severely ‘impacted the informal sector’. (Source: Page No7, Economic Survey 2017-18)  With one year to go for next General Elections, PM Shri has plunged the’ State of India’s
Economy’ towards despondency, dejection and dire straits. We say this with a sense of  responsibility and the Economic Survey only reaffirms our view as indicated in the
following important parameters:-
1. Budget 2017-18 predicted a GDP Growth of 7.5% for 2017-18. FM has turned out to be more than a full percentage point off the mark! This year again, the Economic Survey predicts GDP Growth at 7-7.5% for 2018-19, we sincerely hope that this prediction does not become another lame duck prediction, considering the constantly diminishing past track record of GDP growth in the years 2015-16 (8%), 2016-17 (7.1%) and 2017-18 (6.5%)
2. Agriculture is India’s Lifeline. Economic Survey recognizes that and says “Agriculture matters for economic reasons because it still accounts for a substantial part of GDP (16%) and employment (49%)”. But causing ‘Agrarian Distress’ has become the designed objective of Modi Government.
a. During Congress –UPA Govt, between 2004-05 and 2013-14, Agri-GDP registered a growth rate of 4.2%, while the overall GDP grew at 7.9%. The Agri-GDP growth under Modi Government, has plunged to just 1.9 % , half of what was achieved in  the first four years of the UPA. Reason is deliberate betrayal of India’s Farmers by PM on the promise of Cost +50% of MSP.
b. Economic Survey admits that BJP’s promise of ‘Doubling Farmer Income’ would require ‘12% Growth per annum for 6 continuous years’! Reality is it is growing by mere 1.9%!
c. With another year to go for the general elections, even if the Agri-GDP growth jumps to 4 per cent in 2018-19, the five-year average will still be 2.3 %, the lowest since the
economic reforms began.
3. The Average Industrial Growth during the 10 years of Congress-UPA was 4.2%, while the Average Industrial Growth in the last 4 years of Modi Government in 3.7%. Construction sector which is the largest employer in the non-agriculture sector has slowed to 1.7% in FY2017. No wonder, there are no jobs in the country!
4. Economic Survey says the GST rate should have been one single rate of 15 - 16%. The Modi Government did not listen to the Congress' suggestion of a true 'One Nation, One Tax' cap but it chose not to listen to its own CEA by complex and cumbersome GST rates.
5. Weak Export and a Trade Deficit at a 3 year high have also added to the economic stress.  The manufacturing export as % of GDP has declined from 10.6% to 8.3% 
6. Although the Economic Survey alludes to the rising Oil Prices in the last 3 quarters, the stark  truth is that Modi Government failed to utilize the windfall of Rs 5.9 Lakh Crore (Till September 2017) due to Central Excise Duty and Taxes for the benefit of common people.
7. Rise in food prices for the average consumer. Food inflation has gone up to 5% overall in December 2017 from just 2% in December 2016
8. For all the hoopla over "Beti Bachao Beti Padao" (BBBP), the Economic Survey says that there are still 20 lakh girl children that go missing every year. The Modi Government’s outlay of “Beti Bachao, Beti Padhao” Scheme for 161 Districts was just Rs 200 Crore for the year 2017-18. That means each district under the scheme was provided on an average just Rs 1.24 Crore. How will the ‘Beti’ benefit from this meagre budget? Was it only meant for advertisements?
9. It remains non-committal that Modi Government can control its Fiscal Deficit. If the government slips on its deficit commitment, then it can lead to review of India's ratings.
10. The Economic Survey claims that there is a “50% increase in unique indirect tax registrants since GST”- However the stark reality is that Modi Govt had set a target of Rs 1.9 Lakh Crore of Gross Tax Revenue for FY18, instead the Central Government only earned Rs 1 Lakh Crore till November 2017, falling short of Rs 90,000 Crore
11. Last year, the Economic Survey stressed on reigniting the Apparel and Leather Sector in order  to provide impetus to growth. Due to which, then a package of Rs 6000 Crore was announced in June 2017. The Economic Survey in its flowery language virtually accepts that the Rs 6000 Crore Package failed to provide impetus to the sector. The package did not have a statistically positive impact on RMG (Ready Made Garments) made of cotton and silk (two most important fibers of Indian export)
All in all it has turned out to be ‘much ado without direction, cohesion & vision’!

 

 

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